Journal of Theories · Vol. I · August 2026
Thucydides's Trap, String Theory, Modelski's Table
An Analysis of Great Power Competition in the Modern Age
By Jack M. Lindstrom
Arctic Ledger, Journal of Theories
Three essays
Editor's Note. Theories I is Arctic Ledger's first publication devoted to the ideas underlying geopolitical analysis rather than to a specific supply chain, vulnerability, or region. Unlike the case-driven essays of Volume I, these three pieces (on weaponized interdependence and leverage, on the interaction of economic coercion and the probability of war, and on the gaps opening up in Modelski's long-cycle model) are offered as theory: frameworks meant for testing, argument, and revision rather than as calls to action. They are not published elsewhere at this time. — Jack M. Lindstrom, Founder & Publisher, Arctic Ledger
In This Issue
No. 01
Strings Attached: Measuring Leverage in the Globalized World Order
Jack Lindstrom
A theory of geopolitics built on strings rather than fronts: the ties of economic, military, soft, institutional, and individual leverage that bind and pull states, with a proposed quantification model and a worked case study of China and the Solomon Islands.
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No. 02
Thucydides' Trap: The Role of Bello-Economics and Probability of War
Jack M. Lindstrom
Does economic coercion make war between the US and China more or less likely? A comparative reading of Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and China through Copeland's trade-expectations theory, arguing that dual circulation is the mechanism that could tip the balance.
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No. 03
Long Cycles and Critical Minerals: An Analysis of Modelski's Table in the 21st Century
Jack Lindstrom
Modelski's long-cycle table has an unfinished row for the 2000s. This essay argues the blank is not a data gap but evidence of three broken assumptions (the embedded challenger, the fractured K-wave, and legitimacy as a variable rather than a constant) and proposes a revised chokepoint cycle model.
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About the Contributors
Jack M. Lindstrom, Founder & Publisher, Arctic Ledger. Master of International Affairs candidate, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Junior Researcher under Leonard Hochberg, The Mackinder Forum.
Suggested citation: Lindstrom, Jack M., ed. Arctic Ledger, Theories I. July–August 2026.
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