Volume I · No. 2 · September–October 2026

Ore, Ownership, and Opacity

Critical Minerals and China’s Strategy of Concealed Control

Editor's Note. Volume I No. 1 provided an overview of great power competition throughout the world, in its various presentations and battlegrounds. Volume I No. 2 turns instead from the architecture of access to the control of chokepoints: once a mineral is taken from the ground, who does it actually belong to, sooner or later, in the supply chain? Vol. I No. 2 is Arctic Ledger’s compilation of ten articles analyzing the role and shifting significance of critical minerals in the geopolitical landscape, with authors from six nations and four continents, drawn from distinguished think tanks, universities, corporations, and ministries of foreign affairs. This volume covers the origin, extraction, and politics of critical minerals — from radioactive sands in the Egyptian desert to nickel reserves in Oceania; from the conquest of supply chains by China and Western powers, to the national interests of security and technological advancement those chains now serve.

It analyzes the liberalization of the Egyptian mining sector for gold and phosphate, while a rare earth-rich black sand reserve is retained through a military-owned company with no public output. Rwandan export statistics record smuggled Congolese cobalt, laundered through licensed refiners, which in turn fund an armed militia under US sanction. Nickel in Oceania provides differing degrees of leverage across the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia. In the landlocked states of Central Asia, China establishes a hold on Eurasia through infrastructure and financing that quietly suffocates mineral sovereignty. The West, meanwhile, seeks to build refining capacity to match China, even as leverage shifts up the supply chain — changing where the chokepoint of critical minerals actually rests, and who controls it.

The throughline is opacity, rather than the commonly-argued notion of scarcity. Control lies not in the rarity of a rare earth, but in the influence its concealment makes possible.

I appreciate as always the phenomenal contributors to this volume, their research, fieldwork, and the patience the editorial process required to ensure only the highest quality. Like the minerals leaving Chinese processing plants, my team and I believe in refining — emphasizing purity, and developing the optimal product from the hard work of contributors across every corner of the globe.

Jack M. Lindstrom — Founder & Publisher, Arctic Ledger
In This Issue
No. 01

From Critical Minerals to Critical Components: AI, China, and the New Geography of Chokepoints

How the critical-minerals chokepoint is migrating upstream into the AI hardware stack, and what that means for the next generation of Chinese leverage.

Read the essay →
No. 02

Black Sands: Egypt’s Vanishing Radioactive Minerals

Egypt liberalizes gold and phosphate mining while a military-owned company quietly retains the rare earth-rich black sands, off the public books entirely.

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No. 03

Norway's Seabed Reversal & the Supply Gap Nobody Is Counting

Oslo's reversal on seabed mining and the widening gap between Western critical-mineral ambitions and what is actually being permitted.

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No. 04

Mineral Laundering & Militias: Tracing Beneficial Ownership Behind Critical Mineral Transactions

Tracing how smuggled Congolese cobalt is laundered through licensed Rwandan refiners and ends up funding a US-sanctioned militia.

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No. 05

Indo-Pacific Positioning: Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia in the Critical Minerals Competition

Nickel wealth and creditor leverage across three Indo-Pacific states, and the differing degrees of exposure each has to Beijing.

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No. 06

The Yakjilva Mine as a Showcase of China's Eurasian Resource Access Strategy

A single mine in Central Asia as a case study in how Chinese infrastructure and financing convert sovereign mineral wealth into influence.

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No. 07

India's Critical-Minerals Processing Gap

Why India's ambitions to counterweight Chinese mineral processing keep running into its own infrastructure and interagency friction.

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No. 08

Putting a Price on Legitimacy: Private Security Companies, Critical Minerals, and China

Private security companies as an overlooked instrument of legitimacy and control in contested critical-mineral extraction zones.

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No. 09

Pearl Divers No Longer: China's Civil-Military Fusion in Critical Mineral Deep-Sea Extraction

China's civil-military fusion applied to deep-sea critical mineral extraction, and what it means for the CCZ contest explored in Volume I.

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No. 10

The Sanctions and the System: Chinese Firms and US Responses

Chinese state-owned enterprises, sanctions evasion, and the widening menu of US financial tools aimed at the critical-minerals supply chain.

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About the Contributors

Jack M. Lindstrom — Founder & Publisher, Arctic Ledger. Master of International Affairs candidate, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Junior Researcher under Leonard Hochberg, The Mackinder Forum. Co-author or contributing editor of each essay in this volume, including sole authorship of “Pearl Divers No Longer: China’s Civil-Military Fusion in Critical Mineral Deep-Sea Extraction”; general editor of Arctic Ledger.

Souheil Mouhajir — African Statecraft Researcher. International Affairs & Data Science, The George Washington University (Elliott School), where he is a Presidential Scholar. Co-Director, Onero Institute Africa Program; researcher on AI governance and emerging technology policy with Demistef.AI. Contributed “Black Sands: Egypt’s Vanishing Radioactive Minerals.”

Alexander Bagnull — OSINT & Beneficial Ownership Analyst. Open-Source Intelligence Analyst. B.S. and M.S. in Cybersecurity, Robert Morris University, with graduate research on OSINT investigation, advanced persistent threats, and AI applications in banking-sector cybersecurity. Contributed “Mineral Laundering & Militias: Tracing Beneficial Ownership Behind Critical Mineral Transactions.”

Ahmad Azzam — Researcher, Indo-Pacific Industrial Policy. International Relations graduate, Universitas Bakrie, Jakarta; McKinsey.org Forward Program graduate. Background in policy research and governance across Indonesia’s foreign affairs community, including an internship at the Embassy of the Republic of Bulgaria. Contributed “Indo-Pacific Positioning.”

Samuel Schlichting — Political Theorist, Eurasian Borders. Ph.D., political theorist working on Eurasian borders, China, and Central Asia. Author of Balancing Structural Power: Reactions to China’s Rise in Eurasia (Würzburg University Press). Based in Germany. Contributed “The Yakjilva Mine as a Showcase of China’s Eurasian Resource Access Strategy.”

Aakansha Singh — Geopolitical Researcher. Master’s in Public Administration, Indira Gandhi National Open University; B.Tech in Civil Engineering, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University. Background bridging infrastructure, governance, and policy evaluation. Contributed “India’s Critical-Minerals Processing Gap.”

David Cristiano Aguado — Security & Defense Analyst. Contributed “Putting a Price on Legitimacy: Private Security Companies, Critical Minerals, and China.”

Leonardo Gomez — Researcher, Sanctions and State-Owned Enterprise Policy. Contributed “The Sanctions and the System: Chinese Firms and US Responses.”

Suggested citation: Lindstrom, Jack M., ed. Arctic Ledger, Vol. II. September–October 2026.
© 2026 Arctic Ledger. All rights reserved. Views expressed are those of the individual authors.