Volume I · No. 4 · October–November 2026

The Alignment Atlas

An analysis of influence campaigns across the globe

Soldiers assembling a floating ribbon bridge across a river in a winter landscape
U.S. and South Korean soldiers assemble a floating bridge across a river during a combined crossing exercise, March 2024.Photo: U.S. Army, via DVIDS (VIRIN 240314-A-PY967-1215). Public domain.
Editor’s Note. Arctic Ledger strives to provide quality and comprehensive understandings of the complexities of geopolitics in a way that can be both concise and/or exhaustive. As such, this issue of Arctic Ledger contains a brief written piece from Dr. Sohail Mahmood of Chapel Hill, as well as an in-depth analysis by Emma Loeber from the Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. This issue seeks to blend such analyses while also following a throughline of the alignment of the world as it leans towards or away centers of power. Volume I No. 4 is the result of the hard work of our authors, editorial team, and peer-review board, and I appreciate them all deeply.

We hope you enjoy.

Jack Lindstrom — Founder & Editor, Arctic Ledger
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In This Issue

The six entries tagged Alignment Atlas map how states lean toward or away from the great powers: some bend with every wind, some cluster together, and a few, like the United States and China, set the wind itself. Read the Atlas introduction →

No. 01

Military-Civil Fusion in Mineral Extraction

How China’s military-civil fusion strategy embeds strategic minerals, rare earths foremost among them, in state industrial groups, defence-related research networks, and downstream manufacturing.

Read the essay →
No. 02

How Trump Has Drastically Diverged From US Arctic Policy and Where to Go From Here

Sixteen US Arctic strategies prioritized either security and resources or cooperation and research. Under the current administration, the author finds, the Arctic rose in priority while the second pair was neglected.

Read the essay →
No. 03

Simultaneity: How South Korea’s Chips and AI Face Washington and Beijing at Once

Samsung and SK hynix run their China fabs under American licenses that now expire every year. Korea’s exposure, the author argues, is not a chokepoint but simultaneity.

Read the essay →
No. 04

Infrastructure as Alignment: China’s Bay of Bengal Strategy and the Structural Constraints on Bangladesh’s Multi-Alignment Policy

Chinese port, transport, and energy infrastructure builds durable incentives that progressively narrow Dhaka’s room to hedge, with no explicit coercion required.

Read the essay →
No. 05

Türkiye’s Middle Ground

The S-400 purchase, the F-35 fallout, and what Ankara’s hedging does—and does not—show about its alignment with the West.

Read the essay →
No. 06

In the Maghreb, the Great Powers Are the Instruments

Morocco hedges between an American security guarantee and a European market while Chinese capital arbitrages the gap; Algeria is quietly swapping Beijing in for Moscow.

Read the essay →
No. 07

An Analysis of the Sahel

Russian-backed security actors have largely replaced Western ones in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, yet the security situation deteriorated sharply in 2026.

Read the essay →
No. 08

South Africa – Dual Alignment

AGOA imports from South Africa have fallen sharply even as total US imports rose, while BRICS-linked financing keeps Pretoria anchored on both tracks.

Read the essay →
The Issue in Photographs

Photographs are credited in their captions. Those marked “File photo” are illustrative and do not depict events discussed in the essays; archival photographs carry their dates.

A U.S. Marine on snowshoes stands in a whiteout with a column of Marines climbing a ridge behind him
Essay 02U.S. Marines move across a snowfield in blizzard conditions, August 2023.Photo: U.S. Marine Corps, via DVIDS (VIRIN 230823-M-YO040-1077M). Public domain.
A U.S. Navy admiral signs a guest book between two Bangladesh Navy officers in white uniforms
Essay 04Rear Adm. Joey Tynch of U.S. Navy Task Force 73 signs a guest book beside Bangladesh Navy officers.Photo: U.S. Navy, via DVIDS. Public domain.
Officials and soldiers lined up in front of a Patriot missile launcher
File photoOfficials and service members from several nations pose in front of a Patriot missile launcher.Photo source not identified.
Soldiers kneel beside a Stryker armored vehicle on a rocky coast
File photoU.S. Army soldiers and a Stryker armored vehicle at a coastal training area. File photo; it does not depict events discussed in the essays.Photo: U.S. Army, via DVIDS (photo ID 9664672). Public domain.
Burkinabe soldiers in helmets and body armor gathered by a pickup truck on dry grassland
Essay 07Burkinabe soldiers prepare for another firing iteration during Flintlock 20 in Thiès, Senegal, Feb. 19, 2020.Photo: Steven Lewis, U.S. Africa Command, via DVIDS. Public domain.
A sailor with glowing wands signals a helicopter on a carrier flight deck at night
Essay 08A sailor signals an MH-60R Seahawk on the flight deck of USS George Washington (CVN 73) at night in the Indian Ocean, Aug. 6, 2025. The official caption identifies the signalman as Aviation Ordnanceman 3rd Class Justin Baker, from South Africa.Photo: Tyler Crowley, U.S. Navy, via DVIDS. Public domain.
Marines carrying an inflatable boat along a beach beneath sandstone cliffs
File photoU.S. Marines carry an inflatable boat across a beach beneath coastal cliffs, July 2026. File photo; it does not depict events discussed in the essays.Photo: U.S. Marine Corps, via DVIDS (VIRIN 260701-M-NM916-1429). Public domain.
Soldiers on top of a Humvee hook a sling-load cable to a CH-47 Chinook hovering above
File photoU.S. Army soldiers rig a vehicle for a CH-47 Chinook sling-load, August 2026. File photo; it does not depict events discussed in the essays.Photo: U.S. Army, via DVIDS (VIRIN 260826-A-XE136-1270). Public domain.

Contributing Institutions

Georgetown University · Bilkent University · Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) · UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS) · University of Vienna · The George Washington University · The Mackinder Forum · Futurale College · Middle East Technical University · United States Coast Guard Auxiliary · Rise to Peace · University of Melbourne · University of Denver, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs · Onero Institute · Northern Arizona University

About the Contributors

Jack Lindstrom — Founder & Editor, Arctic Ledger. Master of International Affairs candidate, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Junior Researcher under Leonard Hochberg, The Mackinder Forum. Author of “Infrastructure as Alignment”; general editor of Arctic Ledger.

Mengmeng (Ivy) Wu — Master of International Relations graduate, University of Melbourne (2026). Research spans U.S.–China relations, technology and international security, digital governance, and IR theory. Contributed “Military-Civil Fusion in Mineral Extraction.”

Emma Loeber — International relations student, University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School, with interests in Arctic security, the Nordic countries, and peacemaking and conflict negotiation. Research Aide, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Contributed “How Trump Has Drastically Diverged From US Arctic Policy and Where to Go From Here.”

Taeyoung Lee — Policy researcher based in New York; Master of International Affairs, Columbia University SIPA. Works with the Digital, AI and Innovation Hub at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); research focuses on the geopolitics of emerging technology in the Asia-Pacific. Contributed “Simultaneity.”

Fariya Chohan — Research Intern, Bilkent University; Political Science, Middle East Technical University (METU). Contributed “Türkiye’s Middle Ground.”

Souheil Mouhajir — African statecraft researcher. International Affairs & Data Science, The George Washington University (Elliott School), where he is a Presidential Scholar; Co-Director, Onero Institute Africa Program. Contributed “In the Maghreb, the Great Powers Are the Instruments.”

Dr. Sohail Mahmood — Political analyst, policy advisor, and academic leader; Futurale College, Montreal, and Northern Arizona University. Contributed “An Analysis of the Sahel.”

Catherine Boudreaux — International security graduate, Sciences Po (2025); previously an intern at Partnership for a Secure America. Contributed “South Africa – Dual Alignment.”

Suggested citation: Lindstrom, Jack, ed. Arctic Ledger, Vol. I, No. 4. October–November 2026.
© 2026 Arctic Ledger. All rights reserved. Views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not represent the positions of Arctic Ledger or any affiliated institution.